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Differential Equations Quiz

Differential Equations Quiz: Growth Model Parameters

Practice Growth Model Parameters in Differential Equations with focused quiz questions that help you check what you know, review explanations, and build confidence with test-style prompts.

Question 1 / 13

0 of 13 answered

A biologist models a yeast culture first with an exponential model dPdt=rP\frac{dP}{dt} = rPdtdP​=rP and later refines it to a logistic model dPdt=rP(1−PK)\frac{dP}{dt} = rP(1 - \frac{P}{K})dtdP​=rP(1−KP​). How does the interpretation of the parameter rrr differ between the two models?

Select an answer to continue

What this quiz covers

This quiz focuses on Growth Model Parameters, giving you a quick way to practice the rules, question types, and explanations that matter most for Differential Equations.

How to use this quiz

Try each quiz question before looking at the correct answer. Use the explanations to review missed ideas, then come back to similar questions until the pattern feels familiar.

All questions

Question 1

A biologist models a yeast culture first with an exponential model dPdt=rP\frac{dP}{dt} = rPdtdP​=rP and later refines it to a logistic model dPdt=rP(1−PK)\frac{dP}{dt} = rP(1 - \frac{P}{K})dtdP​=rP(1−KP​). How does the interpretation of the parameter rrr differ between the two models?

  1. In the exponential model, rrr is the constant relative growth rate, while in the logistic model, rrr is the maximum possible relative growth rate, approached only as P→0P \to 0P→0. (correct answer)
  2. In both models, rrr represents the constant relative growth rate, (dP/dt)/P(dP/dt)/P(dP/dt)/P, for any population size PPP.
  3. In the exponential model, rrr is the constant growth rate, while in the logistic model, rrr is the carrying capacity.
  4. In the exponential model, rrr is the initial population size, while in the logistic model, rrr represents the maximum rate of change of the population.

Explanation: When analyzing population models, you need to understand how parameters change meaning as models become more sophisticated. The key insight is recognizing what "relative growth rate" means in each context. In the exponential model dPdt=rP\frac{dP}{dt} = rPdtdP​=rP, the relative growth rate is 1PdPdt=r\frac{1}{P}\frac{dP}{dt} = rP1​dtdP​=r, which remains constant regardless of population size. Here, rrr represents a fixed percentage growth rate that never changes. In the logistic model dPdt=rP(1−PK)\frac{dP}{dt} = rP(1 - \frac{P}{K})dtdP​=rP(1−KP​), the relative growth rate becomes 1PdPdt=r(1−PK)\frac{1}{P}\frac{dP}{dt} = r(1 - \frac{P}{K})P1​dtdP​=r(1−KP​). Notice that rrr now represents the maximum possible relative growth rate, achieved only when PPP approaches zero (making the term (1−PK)(1 - \frac{P}{K})(1−KP​) approach 1). As population grows toward the carrying capacity KKK, the actual relative growth rate decreases. This makes answer A correct. Answer B is wrong because the relative growth rate is not constant in the logistic model—it decreases as PPP increases. Answer C incorrectly states that rrr is the carrying capacity in the logistic model, when that's actually KKK. Answer D completely misidentifies what rrr represents in both models, confusing it with initial population size and maximum rate of change. Study tip: Remember that in logistic models, the original exponential parameters become "maximum" values that are reduced by limiting factors. Always check whether a parameter maintains the same meaning across different model complexities.

Question 2

The population of a species exhibiting an Allee effect is modeled by the equation dPdt=0.02P(P50−1)(1−P400)\frac{dP}{dt} = 0.02P(\frac{P}{50} - 1)(1 - \frac{P}{400})dtdP​=0.02P(50P​−1)(1−400P​), where P(t)P(t)P(t) is the population size. Which statement correctly interprets a parameter or feature of this model?

  1. The maximum possible population size is 50.
  2. An initial population between 50 and 400 will cause the population to grow and stabilize at 400. (correct answer)
  3. The population's growth rate is always positive as long as the initial population is greater than 50.
  4. The intrinsic growth rate of the population is 0.02.

Explanation: The equilibrium points of the model are found by setting dP/dt=0dP/dt = 0dP/dt=0, which gives P=0P=0P=0, P=50P=50P=50, and P=400P=400P=400. We analyze the sign of dP/dtdP/dtdP/dt in the intervals between these points. For 0<P<500 < P < 500<P<50, (P50−1)(\frac{P}{50} - 1)(50P​−1) is negative and (1−P400)(1 - \frac{P}{400})(1−400P​) is positive, so dP/dt<0dP/dt < 0dP/dt<0 (population dies out). For 50<P<40050 < P < 40050<P<400, (P50−1)(\frac{P}{50} - 1)(50P​−1) is positive and (1−P400)(1 - \frac{P}{400})(1−400P​) is positive, so dP/dt>0dP/dt > 0dP/dt>0 (population grows). For P>400P > 400P>400, (P50−1)(\frac{P}{50} - 1)(50P​−1) is positive and (1−P400)(1 - \frac{P}{400})(1−400P​) is negative, so dP/dt<0dP/dt < 0dP/dt<0 (population declines). Therefore, P=50P=50P=50 is an unstable equilibrium (a population threshold), and P=400P=400P=400 is a stable equilibrium (the carrying capacity). An initial population between 50 and 400 will grow towards 400.

Question 3

The growth of a cell culture is modeled by the Gompertz equation dNdt=−αNln⁡(NK)\frac{dN}{dt} = -\alpha N \ln(\frac{N}{K})dtdN​=−αNln(KN​), where N(t)N(t)N(t) is the number of cells, KKK is the carrying capacity, and α\alphaα is a positive constant. How does the relative growth rate, 1NdNdt\frac{1}{N}\frac{dN}{dt}N1​dtdN​, change as the number of cells NNN increases from a small value towards KKK?

  1. It increases to a maximum value at N=K/eN=K/eN=K/e and then decreases.
  2. It decreases monotonically as NNN approaches KKK. (correct answer)
  3. It remains constant for all values of N<KN < KN<K.
  4. It increases monotonically as NNN approaches KKK.

Explanation: The relative growth rate is given by the expression R(N)=1NdNdt=−αln⁡(NK)R(N) = \frac{1}{N}\frac{dN}{dt} = -\alpha \ln(\frac{N}{K})R(N)=N1​dtdN​=−αln(KN​). This can be rewritten as R(N)=αln⁡(K)−αln⁡(N)R(N) = \alpha \ln(K) - \alpha \ln(N)R(N)=αln(K)−αln(N). To see how this changes with NNN, we can take its derivative with respect to NNN: dRdN=−αN\frac{dR}{dN} = -\frac{\alpha}{N}dNdR​=−Nα​. Since α\alphaα and NNN are both positive, dRdN\frac{dR}{dN}dNdR​ is always negative for N>0N>0N>0. This indicates that the relative growth rate R(N)R(N)R(N) is a strictly decreasing function of NNN. As NNN increases towards KKK, the relative growth rate decreases. The absolute growth rate dNdt\frac{dN}{dt}dtdN​ is what peaks at N=K/eN=K/eN=K/e, a common point of confusion.

Question 4

A population P(t)P(t)P(t) is governed by the logistic equation dPdt=kP(1−PM)\frac{dP}{dt} = kP(1 - \frac{P}{M})dtdP​=kP(1−MP​). It is observed that the population's growth rate is fastest when the population is approximately 50,000. For very small population sizes, the population is observed to grow at a relative rate of approximately 4% per year. Which of the following are the most likely values for the parameters kkk and MMM?

  1. k=0.04k = 0.04k=0.04 and M=50,000M = 50,000M=50,000
  2. k=0.08k = 0.08k=0.08 and M=50,000M = 50,000M=50,000
  3. k=0.08k = 0.08k=0.08 and M=100,000M = 100,000M=100,000
  4. k=0.04k = 0.04k=0.04 and M=100,000M = 100,000M=100,000 (correct answer)

Explanation: When you encounter logistic growth problems, you need to extract parameter values from two key behavioral clues: the relative growth rate for small populations and the population size at maximum growth rate. The logistic equation dPdt=kP(1−PM)\frac{dP}{dt} = kP(1 - \frac{P}{M})dtdP​=kP(1−MP​) has two parameters to determine. First, for very small populations where P≪MP \ll MP≪M, the term (1−PM)≈1(1 - \frac{P}{M}) \approx 1(1−MP​)≈1, so the equation simplifies to dPdt≈kP\frac{dP}{dt} \approx kPdtdP​≈kP. The relative growth rate is 1PdPdt=k\frac{1}{P}\frac{dP}{dt} = kP1​dtdP​=k, so k=0.04k = 0.04k=0.04. Second, the growth rate dPdt\frac{dP}{dt}dtdP​ reaches its maximum when its derivative equals zero. Taking the derivative: ddP[kP(1−PM)]=k(1−2PM)=0\frac{d}{dP}\left[kP(1 - \frac{P}{M})\right] = k(1 - \frac{2P}{M}) = 0dPd​[kP(1−MP​)]=k(1−M2P​)=0. This gives P=M2P = \frac{M}{2}P=2M​. Since maximum growth occurs at P=50,000P = 50,000P=50,000, we have M2=50,000\frac{M}{2} = 50,0002M​=50,000, so M=100,000M = 100,000M=100,000. Choice A incorrectly sets M=50,000M = 50,000M=50,000, confusing the maximum growth population with the carrying capacity. Choice B makes this same error while also incorrectly doubling kkk. Choice C correctly identifies M=100,000M = 100,000M=100,000 but wrongly doubles kkk to 0.08, possibly misinterpreting the relative growth rate. The correct answer is D: k=0.04k = 0.04k=0.04 and M=100,000M = 100,000M=100,000. Remember: in logistic growth, maximum growth rate occurs at half the carrying capacity, and the intrinsic growth rate kkk equals the relative growth rate for small populations.

Question 5

Consider two populations, A and B, both modeled by logistic growth, dPdt=kP(1−PM)\frac{dP}{dt} = kP(1-\frac{P}{M})dtdP​=kP(1−MP​). Population A has parameters kA=0.1,MA=1000k_A = 0.1, M_A = 1000kA​=0.1,MA​=1000. Population B has parameters kB=0.2,MB=800k_B = 0.2, M_B = 800kB​=0.2,MB​=800. Both populations start at a size of P(0)=50P(0) = 50P(0)=50. Which statement accurately compares the initial behavior of the two populations?

  1. Population A will initially grow faster because its carrying capacity MMM is larger, providing more room for growth.
  2. Population B will initially grow faster because its intrinsic growth rate kkk is larger, which is the dominant factor for small populations. (correct answer)
  3. Both populations will initially grow at the same rate because their initial population sizes are identical.
  4. Population A has a higher initial growth rate, but Population B will reach its carrying capacity in less time.

Explanation: The initial growth rate is found by evaluating dP/dtdP/dtdP/dt at t=0t=0t=0 (i.e., P=50P=50P=50). For Population A: dPAdt=0.1(50)(1−501000)=5(1−0.05)=4.75\frac{dP_A}{dt} = 0.1(50)(1 - \frac{50}{1000}) = 5(1 - 0.05) = 4.75dtdPA​​=0.1(50)(1−100050​)=5(1−0.05)=4.75. For Population B: dPBdt=0.2(50)(1−50800)=10(1−0.0625)=9.375\frac{dP_B}{dt} = 0.2(50)(1 - \frac{50}{800}) = 10(1 - 0.0625) = 9.375dtdPB​​=0.2(50)(1−80050​)=10(1−0.0625)=9.375. Since 9.375>4.759.375 > 4.759.375>4.75, Population B has a higher initial growth rate. This is because for populations that are small relative to their carrying capacity (P≪MP \ll MP≪M), the term (1−P/M)(1 - P/M)(1−P/M) is close to 1, so the growth is approximately exponential: dP/dt≈kPdP/dt \approx kPdP/dt≈kP. In this regime, the larger intrinsic growth rate kkk leads to faster growth.

Question 6

A population of microorganisms, P(t)P(t)P(t), is modeled by the differential equation dPdt=0.06P−0.0001P2\frac{dP}{dt} = 0.06P - 0.0001P^2dtdP​=0.06P−0.0001P2 where ttt is measured in hours. What is the maximum growth rate of the population, in individuals per hour?

  1. 300
  2. 600
  3. 9 (correct answer)
  4. 18

Explanation: The model is a logistic equation, which can be written in the standard form dPdt=kP(1−PM)\frac{dP}{dt} = kP(1 - \frac{P}{M})dtdP​=kP(1−MP​). Factoring the given equation, we get dPdt=0.06P(1−0.00010.06P)=0.06P(1−P600)\frac{dP}{dt} = 0.06P(1 - \frac{0.0001}{0.06}P) = 0.06P(1 - \frac{P}{600})dtdP​=0.06P(1−0.060.0001​P)=0.06P(1−600P​). From this, we identify the intrinsic growth rate k=0.06k=0.06k=0.06 and the carrying capacity M=600M=600M=600. The maximum growth rate for a logistic model occurs when the population is at half its carrying capacity, P=M/2=300P = M/2 = 300P=M/2=300. To find this maximum rate, we substitute P=300P=300P=300 into the original differential equation: dPdt∣P=300=0.06(300)−0.0001(300)2=18−0.0001(90000)=18−9=9\frac{dP}{dt} |_{P=300} = 0.06(300) - 0.0001(300)^2 = 18 - 0.0001(90000) = 18 - 9 = 9dtdP​∣P=300​=0.06(300)−0.0001(300)2=18−0.0001(90000)=18−9=9 The maximum growth rate is 9 individuals per hour. Alternatively, the maximum growth rate is given by the formula kM/4=(0.06)(600)/4=36/4=9kM/4 = (0.06)(600)/4 = 36/4 = 9kM/4=(0.06)(600)/4=36/4=9.

Question 7

The population of a fish species in a lake, P(t)P(t)P(t) in thousands, is modeled by dPdt=0.1P(1−P1000)−H\frac{dP}{dt} = 0.1P(1 - \frac{P}{1000}) - HdtdP​=0.1P(1−1000P​)−H, where HHH is a constant harvesting rate in thousands of fish per year. An analysis shows that if H>25H > 25H>25, the fish population will eventually be depleted. What is the correct interpretation of the value H=25H=25H=25?

  1. It is the maximum sustainable yield, the highest harvesting rate for which a stable, non-zero population can be maintained. (correct answer)
  2. It is the harvesting rate that maintains the fish population at its original carrying capacity of 1,000 thousand.
  3. It is the natural growth rate of the population when it has been reduced to half its original carrying capacity.
  4. It is the harvesting rate that causes the population to stabilize at exactly 25 thousand fish.

Explanation: The natural growth of the fish population is governed by the logistic term G(P)=0.1P(1−P1000)G(P) = 0.1P(1 - \frac{P}{1000})G(P)=0.1P(1−1000P​). For the population to be sustainable, the harvesting rate HHH must not exceed the population's natural growth rate. The maximum growth rate, which corresponds to the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), occurs at the vertex of the parabola G(P)G(P)G(P), which is at P=M/2=1000/2=500P = M/2 = 1000/2 = 500P=M/2=1000/2=500. The value of this maximum rate is G(500)=0.1(500)(1−5001000)=50(0.5)=25G(500) = 0.1(500)(1 - \frac{500}{1000}) = 50(0.5) = 25G(500)=0.1(500)(1−1000500​)=50(0.5)=25. If the harvesting rate HHH exceeds this value, H>25H > 25H>25, then dPdt\frac{dP}{dt}dtdP​ will be negative for all PPP, leading to extinction. Thus, H=25H=25H=25 is the maximum sustainable yield.

Question 8

A fishery is modeled by the equation dPdt=0.4P(1−P10000)−hP\frac{dP}{dt} = 0.4P(1 - \frac{P}{10000}) - hPdtdP​=0.4P(1−10000P​)−hP, where hhh is a parameter representing the harvesting effort (the fraction of the fish population caught per unit time). What is the critical value of hhh above which the fish population will be driven to extinction for any positive initial population?

  1. 0.1
  2. 0.2
  3. 0.4 (correct answer)
  4. 10000

Explanation: The differential equation can be rewritten by factoring out PPP: dPdt=P[0.4(1−P10000)−h]=P[(0.4−h)−0.410000P]\frac{dP}{dt} = P \left[ 0.4(1 - \frac{P}{10000}) - h \right] = P \left[ (0.4 - h) - \frac{0.4}{10000}P \right]dtdP​=P[0.4(1−10000P​)−h]=P[(0.4−h)−100000.4​P] This is a logistic-type equation with an effective intrinsic growth rate of k′=(0.4−h)k' = (0.4 - h)k′=(0.4−h). For the population to have any capacity for growth when its size is small, this effective growth rate must be positive. If k′≤0k' \le 0k′≤0, then dPdt\frac{dP}{dt}dtdP​ will be negative for all P>0P > 0P>0, leading to extinction. The critical point is when k′=0k' = 0k′=0, which is 0.4−h=00.4 - h = 00.4−h=0, or h=0.4h = 0.4h=0.4. For any value of h>0.4h > 0.4h>0.4, the term (0.4−h)(0.4-h)(0.4−h) is negative, and since the −P2-P^2−P2 term is also negative, dPdt\frac{dP}{dt}dtdP​ will always be negative, causing the population to decline to zero.

Question 9

A researcher proposes a modified logistic model for population growth given by dPdt=kP(1−(PM)2)\frac{dP}{dt} = kP(1 - (\frac{P}{M})^2)dtdP​=kP(1−(MP​)2), with k>0k>0k>0 and M>0M>0M>0. How does the parameter MMM in this model function compared to the standard logistic model?

  1. MMM represents a threshold; if the initial population is below MMM, it dies out.
  2. MMM no longer represents a stable carrying capacity, as populations above MMM grow infinitely.
  3. MMM is a stable carrying capacity, and the population grows fastest at M/2M/2M/2, same as the standard model.
  4. MMM is a stable carrying capacity, but the population grows fastest at a level greater than M/2M/2M/2. (correct answer)

Explanation: When analyzing modified differential equation models, you need to examine equilibrium points and their stability, then determine where growth rates are maximized. For this modified logistic model dPdt=kP(1−(PM)2)\frac{dP}{dt} = kP(1 - (\frac{P}{M})^2)dtdP​=kP(1−(MP​)2), let's find the equilibrium points by setting the derivative equal to zero. This occurs when P=0P = 0P=0 or when 1−(PM)2=01 - (\frac{P}{M})^2 = 01−(MP​)2=0, giving us P=MP = MP=M as the non-trivial equilibrium. Since the growth rate is positive when P<MP < MP<M and negative when P>MP > MP>M, populations are attracted to MMM, confirming it's a stable carrying capacity. To find the maximum growth rate, we take the derivative: d2Pdt2=k(1−(PM)2)−kP⋅2PM2=k(1−3(PM)2)\frac{d^2P}{dt^2} = k(1 - (\frac{P}{M})^2) - k P \cdot \frac{2P}{M^2} = k(1 - 3(\frac{P}{M})^2)dt2d2P​=k(1−(MP​)2)−kP⋅M22P​=k(1−3(MP​)2). Setting this equal to zero gives P=M3≈0.577MP = \frac{M}{\sqrt{3}} \approx 0.577MP=3​M​≈0.577M, which is greater than M/2=0.5MM/2 = 0.5MM/2=0.5M. Answer A is wrong because populations below MMM actually grow toward MMM, not die out. Answer B incorrectly claims MMM isn't stable—we showed populations above MMM decrease back toward it. Answer C correctly identifies MMM as stable but wrongly assumes the inflection point occurs at M/2M/2M/2 like in the standard logistic model. The correct answer is D: MMM remains a stable carrying capacity, but the squared term in the model shifts the maximum growth rate to occur above M/2M/2M/2. Study tip: When analyzing modified population models, always check equilibrium stability and recalculate inflection points—don't assume they match standard models.

Question 10

Newton's law of cooling states that dTdt=−k(T−Ta)\frac{dT}{dt} = -k(T - T_a)dtdT​=−k(T−Ta​) where TaT_aTa​ is the ambient temperature. A forensic investigator finds that a body cooled from 37°C37°C37°C to 32°C32°C32°C in the first hour, and the ambient temperature is 20°C20°C20°C. If the ambient temperature had been 15°C15°C15°C instead (with the same cooling constant kkk), what would the body temperature be after one hour?

  1. 26.5°C26.5°C26.5°C because the larger temperature difference increases the cooling rate proportionally
  2. 27.8°C27.8°C27.8°C because the cooling follows the same exponential pattern with adjusted parameters
  3. 28.6°C28.6°C28.6°C because the cooling constant remains the same but the driving force changes (correct answer)
  4. 29.4°C29.4°C29.4°C because the temperature difference affects only the initial rate, not the overall pattern

Explanation: First, find kkk from the original scenario: T(t)=Ta+(T0−Ta)e−kt=20+17e−ktT(t) = T_a + (T_0 - T_a)e^{-kt} = 20 + 17e^{-kt}T(t)=Ta​+(T0​−Ta​)e−kt=20+17e−kt. At t=1t = 1t=1: 32=20+17e−k32 = 20 + 17e^{-k}32=20+17e−k, so e−k=12/17e^{-k} = 12/17e−k=12/17, giving k=ln⁡(17/12)≈0.347k = \ln(17/12) \approx 0.347k=ln(17/12)≈0.347. For Ta=15°CT_a = 15°CTa​=15°C: T(t)=15+22e−ktT(t) = 15 + 22e^{-kt}T(t)=15+22e−kt. At t=1t = 1t=1: T(1)=15+22×(12/17)=15+264/17≈28.6°CT(1) = 15 + 22 \times (12/17) = 15 + 264/17 ≈ 28.6°CT(1)=15+22×(12/17)=15+264/17≈28.6°C. Choice A incorrectly assumes linear proportionality. Choice B uses an incorrect adjustment method. Choice D wrongly assumes the driving force only affects initial conditions.

Question 11

A predator-prey system is linearized around an equilibrium point, yielding dxdt=ax+by\frac{dx}{dt} = ax + bydtdx​=ax+by and dydt=cx+dy\frac{dy}{dt} = cx + dydtdy​=cx+dy where the coefficient matrix has eigenvalues λ1=0.1+0.3i\lambda_1 = 0.1 + 0.3iλ1​=0.1+0.3i and λ2=0.1−0.3i\lambda_2 = 0.1 - 0.3iλ2​=0.1−0.3i. What does the real part 0.10.10.1 specifically indicate about the nonlinear system's behavior near equilibrium?

  1. The equilibrium is unstable, and perturbations grow exponentially with rate 0.10.10.1 while oscillating with period 2π0.3\frac{2\pi}{0.3}0.32π​ (correct answer)
  2. The system exhibits neutral stability with oscillations of increasing amplitude at frequency 0.30.30.3 radians per unit time
  3. The real part indicates the average growth rate of the system's energy function over one complete oscillatory cycle
  4. The equilibrium is a stable focus with perturbations decaying at rate 0.10.10.1 while maintaining oscillatory motion

Explanation: For complex eigenvalues α±βi\alpha ± \beta iα±βi, the real part α\alphaα determines stability: α>0\alpha > 0α>0 means unstable (growing), α<0\alpha < 0α<0 means stable (decaying), α=0\alpha = 0α=0 means neutrally stable. Here α=0.1>0\alpha = 0.1 > 0α=0.1>0, so the equilibrium is unstable. Perturbations grow like e0.1te^{0.1t}e0.1t while oscillating with frequency 0.30.30.3, giving period T=2π/0.3T = 2\pi/0.3T=2π/0.3. Choice B incorrectly suggests neutral stability (would need α=0\alpha = 0α=0). Choice C misinterprets the meaning of the real part. Choice D incorrectly calls it stable (would need α<0\alpha < 0α<0).

Question 12

A radioactive substance follows the decay model N(t)=N0e−λtN(t) = N_0 e^{-\lambda t}N(t)=N0​e−λt where λ=0.693 year−1\lambda = 0.693 \text{ year}^{-1}λ=0.693 year−1. A second substance with the same initial amount has a half-life that is twice as long. After 3 years, what is the ratio of the amount of the second substance to the first substance?

  1. The ratio is 21.5≈2.832^{1.5} \approx 2.8321.5≈2.83 because the second substance decays more slowly
  2. The ratio is 20.75≈1.682^{0.75} \approx 1.6820.75≈1.68 because half-life relationships are exponential
  3. The ratio is e1.0395≈2.83e^{1.0395} \approx 2.83e1.0395≈2.83 because the decay constants differ by a factor of 2 (correct answer)
  4. The ratio is 444 because after 3 years, twice the half-life difference compounds quadratically

Explanation: For the first substance: λ1=0.693\lambda_1 = 0.693λ1​=0.693, so t1/2=ln⁡(2)/0.693=1t_{1/2} = \ln(2)/0.693 = 1t1/2​=ln(2)/0.693=1 year. The second substance has t1/2=2t_{1/2} = 2t1/2​=2 years, so λ2=ln⁡(2)/2=0.3465\lambda_2 = \ln(2)/2 = 0.3465λ2​=ln(2)/2=0.3465. After 3 years: N1(3)=N0e−0.693×3=N0e−2.079N_1(3) = N_0 e^{-0.693 \times 3} = N_0 e^{-2.079}N1​(3)=N0​e−0.693×3=N0​e−2.079 and N2(3)=N0e−0.3465×3=N0e−1.0395N_2(3) = N_0 e^{-0.3465 \times 3} = N_0 e^{-1.0395}N2​(3)=N0​e−0.3465×3=N0​e−1.0395. The ratio is N2(3)N1(3)=e−1.0395+2.079=e1.0395≈2.83\frac{N_2(3)}{N_1(3)} = e^{-1.0395 + 2.079} = e^{1.0395} \approx 2.83N1​(3)N2​(3)​=e−1.0395+2.079=e1.0395≈2.83. Choice A gets the right answer but uses incorrect reasoning about powers of 2. Choice B miscalculates the time ratios. Choice D assumes a quadratic relationship that doesn't exist.

Question 13

An epidemic model follows dIdt=βSI−γI\frac{dI}{dt} = \beta SI - \gamma IdtdI​=βSI−γI where III is the number of infected individuals, SSS is susceptible individuals, β=0.0001 person−1day−1\beta = 0.0001 \text{ person}^{-1}\text{day}^{-1}β=0.0001 person−1day−1, and γ=0.1 day−1\gamma = 0.1 \text{ day}^{-1}γ=0.1 day−1. If S=5000S = 5000S=5000 remains approximately constant during the early phase, what does the effective reproductive number Reff=βSγR_{eff} = \frac{\beta S}{\gamma}Reff​=γβS​ tell us about the epidemic's progression?

  1. Since Reff=0.5<1R_{eff} = 0.5 < 1Reff​=0.5<1, the infection will decline exponentially with rate γ−βS=0.05 day−1\gamma - \beta S = 0.05 \text{ day}^{-1}γ−βS=0.05 day−1
  2. Since Reff=0.5<1R_{eff} = 0.5 < 1Reff​=0.5<1, the infection will decline exponentially with rate γ(1−Reff)=0.05 day−1\gamma(1 - R_{eff}) = 0.05 \text{ day}^{-1}γ(1−Reff​)=0.05 day−1
  3. Since Reff=0.5<1R_{eff} = 0.5 < 1Reff​=0.5<1, each infected person will infect 0.50.50.5 others on average before recovering
  4. Since Reff=5>1R_{eff} = 5 > 1Reff​=5>1, the infection will grow exponentially with rate βS−γ=0.4 day−1\beta S - \gamma = 0.4 \text{ day}^{-1}βS−γ=0.4 day−1 (correct answer)

Explanation: Reff=βSγ=0.0001×50000.1=0.50.1=5R_{eff} = \frac{\beta S}{\gamma} = \frac{0.0001 \times 5000}{0.1} = \frac{0.5}{0.1} = 5Reff​=γβS​=0.10.0001×5000​=0.10.5​=5. Since Reff=5>1R_{eff} = 5 > 1Reff​=5>1, the epidemic grows. The growth rate is dIdt/I=βS−γ=0.5−0.1=0.4 day−1\frac{dI}{dt}/I = \beta S - \gamma = 0.5 - 0.1 = 0.4 \text{ day}^{-1}dtdI​/I=βS−γ=0.5−0.1=0.4 day−1. Choice A incorrectly calculates Reff=0.5R_{eff} = 0.5Reff​=0.5. Choice B has the same calculation error but correct formula structure. Choice C has the wrong ReffR_{eff}Reff​ value and misinterprets its meaning (ReffR_{eff}Reff​ is the effective reproduction number under current conditions, not the basic reproduction number).