Calculations by Atticus

Calculations by Atticus - February 2024 Scholarship Essay

Throughout my life, I have been fascinated with the idea of probability. From the first baseball pack I opened with my brother, I began wondering about the likelihood of me buying a pack with a player from the Saint Louis Cardinals. I tried to create a formula because I figured there wasn’t an equal representation of all 30 MLB teams on the baseball cards. After multiple times going to Target, I ended up changing my equation because the amount of players I had was too high. Through trial and error, I found a formula that brought true representation to the probability of me buying a Cardinals player.
Later, when I was hired for my first job in a restaurant, I found myself calculating the tip percentage for my customers on a given night. By finding the mean tip percentage in one shift, I hypothesized and tested the probability of tables tipping an average of 17 percent. Unlike the baseball card scenario which contained organized probability, this experience was determined by the randomness of the tippers. I tried to limit the confounding variables by looking specifically at which sections of the restaurant tipped more. By examining how often these tables turned over, I could more accurately predict the total tip percentage of the customers. I repeated this act many times until I reached a number of trials that would be statistically significant to make an inference about the larger population of customers in the restaurant. I was more interested in creating a formula for my job than baseball packs because there was more fluctuation in the proportions. I liked the idea of sporadic samples because real life doesn’t follow one probability model. It’s engaging to find solutions or methods that will more accurately predict the real-world scenarios from occurring.
In my senior AP statistics course, I continue to find myself intrigued by the structure and methods of finding probability. In college, I want to learn even more about actuary and applied statistics. Creating formulas and equations for real-world scenarios is exciting because it allows me to find predictability in situations that seem unpredictable. I want to learn how to apply probability in people’s lives. Statistics has fascinated me because it is a way to improve lives through strict calculation and interpretation in any scenario. There is no limit to what statistics can be used for.